Hammer Time...?

Hamish Hartlett is a source of frustration for many Supercoach teams. Like Port Adelaide the Hammer started the season off on fire with scores of 123, 38, 118, 144 and 140 over the first five games. Many coaches traded him in at this point expecting a breakout year from the talented midfielder only to be let down with scores of 53, 29 and 77. As expected Hartlett has copped heavy tags from opposition sides and thus far he hasn't been able to break them. As a result he has dropped by $100,000 in price, leaving many coaches regretting their decision to get him.    

The question is do we keep Hartlett or trade him out? 

My advice is to keep him. If you brought Hartlett in after his fast start at $538K and you've endured the poor scores and price drop what would you profit by trading him out three weeks later? You might as well stick with him and enjoy the big scores which are bound to come sooner or later. I think sooner. Take last year for example. Hartlett similarly had three average games with scores of 70, 71 and 90 (rounds 7-9) before smashing out a 153 against the Blues at AAMI Stadium a week later. That's exactly why the Hammer is a potential Supercoach star. He has a high ceiling and is capable of producing some huge scores. Remember also that last year Hartlett was plagued by injuries, never fully fit and playing in a bad side. This year he is injury free, fitter and part of a much improved outfit. 

On the weekend against the Blues Hartlett was again tagged and showed signs of frustration during the game. But unlike Grant Birchall, Hartlett showed some fight and worked hard to finish with 14 possessions (10 contested) and 7 tackles. That's enough to suggest some good form is not far away. 

The Power return home to face the Cats at AAMI Staduim this Saturday. Although the Cats like to strangle teams they usually back themselves to win the ball and resist tagging heavily. After the Cats, the Power play the Western Bulldogs then after the bye they have the GWS Giants. Both are games the Power should win and I expect Hartlett to bounce back against these sides. 

So for now stick with him. You picked Hartlett for a reason and the time has come to back in your judgement. Don't let a few bad games deter you. Keep the faith and before you know it...it will be Hammer time again! 

Rookie Expectations

Ollie Wines had the equal most contested possessions for an AFL debut

Every year a crop of new rookies enter the Supercoach arena. Some of these fresh faces come with a lot of hype and expectations while others don’t draw much attention. This year we have had a plethora of quality rookies to choose from, mostly in the midfield and defence. High draft picks such as Lachie Whitfield, Jimmy Toumpas and Ollie Wines have come with big wraps and high price tags. Mature age rookies like Kane Mitchell and Brett Goodes have come a bit cheaper but likewise with high expectations. We’ve even had a former steeplechaser, Mark Blicavs, come from nowhere and end up playing round one for the Cats. Now that round one has come and gone, it’s time to see who lived up to the preseason hype and who failed to meet our expectations. While some coaches will be regretting their decisions, others will be rejoicing in them. For many there will need to be some corrective trades made over the coming weeks, so let’s look at the good and not so good rookie selections after round one.   

The Good

Ollie Wines (PTA) $169K

Most coaches knew about Ollie Wines’ impressive preseason but not all were willing to pay the extra cash to have him. This was a horrible decision in hindsight as you couldn’t have asked for a better debut from a rookie. Wines was superb in Port’s smashing of Melbourne, with 24 disposals, one goal and 125 Supercoach points. An impressive 16 of Wines’ 24 possessions were contested, which was the equal most by an AFL player on debut. Although his performance was against poor opposition it’s hard not to get excited about having Wines in your team. Well done to the 36% who picked him. For those who overlooked him you will need to make a corrective trade to get him into your side.    

  

Jack Viney (MEL) $109K

Jack Viney was one of the few positives to come out of Melbourne’s shocking performance on the weekend. Viney showed passion and hardness at the ball on his way to 22 possessions, one goal and 117 Supercoach points. Viney also had 16 contested possessions to be equal with Wines as the most contested possessions on debut. Although 59% of coaches own Viney not all had him starting on the field, which was a bad error in hindsight.  The other 41% are advised to get this guy into your team as quickly as possible and make sure he’s in your starting midfield this week.

Brett Goodes (WBD) $128K

There was no greater story from the weekend than Brett Goodes. At 29, Goodes’ AFL debut was long overdue and he didn't waste any time once he got his opportunity. Goodes dominated for the Bulldogs across half back collecting 24 possessions (at 87% efficiency), seven marks and 113 Supercoach points. The 63% of coaches who selected him were expecting solid numbers from the mature age rookie, but Goodes far exceeded these expectations. He is a must-have starting rookie in your backline who may even become a keeper. If you don’t have him, make the corrective trade to get him in this week.  

Jasper Pittard (PTA) $128K

Jasper Pittard was one of many success stories to come out of Port Adelaide's great start to the season. Pittard had only played 14 games over the past three seasons due to injuries, making him a cheap option for your defence. With three years in the system and a full preseason under his belt, Pittard showed why he was a high draft pick. He had 14 disposals (at 85% efficiency), six marks and one goal in the Power’s win over the Dees, finishing with 93 Supercoach points. Surprisingly only 28% of coaches had Pittard in their sides. He uses the ball well off half back and Port like to bring the ball through him so I expect Pittard to continue to score well. If you don’t have him I would look to bring him into your side before his price goes up. 

Jaeger O'Meara (GCS) S115K  

No rookie came with more hype and expectation than Jaeger O'Meara. As the Suns number one selection in the 2011 mini-draft, we all knew about him and his potential after another preseason under his belt. Besides Brett Goodes, O'Meara was the highest selected rookie with 62% of coaches having him in their side. O'Meara's 113 Supercoach point performance in his last NAB Cup game against the Dees also meant he was a certain starter in most sides. O'Meara's slow start on debut would have had a lot of coaches worried but he improved as the game went on finishing with 12 disposals, one goal and 72 Supercoach points. Expect more improvement, but for me he is behind Wines and Viney at the moment.  

The Not So Good

Kane Mitchell (PTA) $126K

The former Sandover Medalist had a super preseason for the Power and was a ‘lock’ in most Supercoach sides early on. However, after playing a few tagging roles many coaches went cold on Mitchell resulting in only 21% of them selecting him. There was also a mad panic to either bench him or trade him out once he was named as the starting sub before the game. Mitchell ended up being subbed on in the fourth quarter and was able to gather 7 possessions and 13 Supercoach points in that time. Not a great result after all the preseason hype. Mitchell has a lot more to offer but the concern is getting game time in a competitive Port Adelaide outfit. Therefore it could be good timing to trade out Mitchell if you need Wines. Otherwise I would keep him on your bench for now.          

Jimmy Toumpas (MEL) $184K

Jimmy Toumpas was impressive in the NAB Cup for Melbourne, showing he was a classy ball user and good finisher. He was also likely to get games early, which was enough for 13% of coaches to select him in their starting sides. As Toumpas was a more expensive rookie choice, those who selected him probably went with Toumpas instead of Wines. This would have been heartbreaking for those coaches watching Wines dominate, while Toumpas could only manage 9 disposals and 25 Supercoach points on debut. Although he will improve I would trade Toumpas out for Wines if you made this mistake.  

Brent Macaffer (COL) $128K

With a lack of forward rookie options this year Brent Macaffer was a ‘lock’ for most sides with 52% of coaches selecting him. As a mature player discounted due to injury, Macaffer was a bargain at his price. The biggest dilemma was whether or not to start him in your F.6 position or have him on the bench. His return of 12 disposals, 5 marks and 1 goal for 44 Supercoach points suggests a bench spot would have been best. However, not all could afford that luxury depending on your team structure. Macaffer is still a worthy selection if you’re struggling for forward rookies. He should play every week and generate enough cash to help improve your side. 

Lachie Whitfield (GWS) $199K

As the number one draft pick, Lachie Whitfield came with a lot of hype and expectation. He lived up to much of this throughout the preseason showing he had little trouble finding the ball as he did in the under 18 competition. Despite his lofty price, 18% of coaches thought he was worthy of selection. They would have been bitterly disappointed with his return of 15 disposals and 49 Supercoach points. When you pay top dollar for a rookie in Supercoach you expect a decent return for your money. To make things worse, GWS are likely to rest Whitfield throughout the season and limit him to around 11 senior games. If you picked him over Wines or Viney I would make a corrective trade.

Mark Blicavs (GEE) $115K

Mark Blicavs, a former steeplechaser, surprised many with his NAB Cup form. Blicavs scored 118 Supercoach points against the Pies playing as the Cats number one ruckman. With ruck stocks low at Geelong Blicavs became a likely round one starter, resulting in 37% of coaches selecting him. His nine possessions (at 100% efficiency), 11 hitouts and 57 Supercoach points on debut wasn’t a bad return. Coaches who started him as their second ruck would have liked 70-80 points, but when you consider Ryder (54 pts) and Roughead’s (58 pts) scores it doesn’t sound so bad. With Blicavs likely to play more games he looks to be a good bench option. At this stage I wouldn’t burn a trade to get him.  

I hope the rookies you chose lived up to their expectations. If not, you can always make corrective trades to get the right ones into your side.

The Tagging Game

Eagle Luke Shuey had a tough time shaking Dockers tagger Ryan Crowley

Tagging is a phenomenon that exists in the AFL and whether you like it or not it’s here to stay. Most sides these days have a designated tagger or a defensive stopper who is sent purely to curb the influence of the opposition’s most damaging midfielder. There have been many successful taggers in the past and one cannot forget the likes of a Steven Baker or a Cameron Ling. The elite taggers like Ling are able to win their own share of the football as well.

In 2013 there are several players known for their effective tagging abilities. Andrew Raines, Clint Jones, Ryan Crowley and Scott Selwood are some who have been very successful at shutting down the opposition’s best midfielder. Although it’s a good tactic to shut down players, it’s often not good for our Supercoach teams. The elite midfielders in the AFL are usually the first players picked in our Supercoach sides. Guys like Gary Ablett, Scott Pendlebury and Trent Cotchin. We rely on these gun players to provide our Supercoach midfield with premium scores week in - week out. If they don’t score well it can put an end to your Supercoach aspirations. That’s why no matter how good a player is, if they can’t break a tag then you don’t want them in your Supercoach team.

This past week we have already seen two players effectively tagged out of the game, Luke Shuey and Patrick Dangerfield. Dangerfield scored a deplorable 63 Supercoach points as a result of being shut down by Essendon tagger Heath Hocking. The Bombers figured out early that Dangerfield was the man to stop so they switched Hocking from Scott Thompson to Dangerfield and the rest is history. Others teams will do the same, making Dangerfield a marked man this year. If Dangerfield can’t adjust and doesn’t get help from his teammates, it could be disastrous for a lot of Supercoach coaches, including me. We will know pretty soon as Raines will tag Dangerfield when the Crows play the Lions in round 2. I’m prediciting Dangerfield can work through it, if not I will seriously consider trading him out before his price plummets after round 3.      

Luke Shuey also struggled to shake the tag of Docker Ryan Crowley, finishing with a disappointing 56 Supercoach points. Big things are expected of Shuey this year after his rapid improvement in 2012. However he has yet to prove he can cope with the attention he received from Crowley last weekend. As long as Daniel Kerr remains sidelined, Shuey will continue to cop the number one tag and struggle to have an impact. This is what happened to Brent Stanton last season. Stanton was flying last year in Supercoach with an average of 137 points per game after round 8. At that point he was equal leader in the Brownlow with teammate Jobe Watson. However, unlike Watson, Stanton couldn’t cope with a tag. Opposition teams soon realised this and Stanton had no impact for the rest of the season. As a result Stanton becomes a risky selection for your Supercoach team. Although the addition of Brendon Goddard means Stanton may be less likely to get the number one tag, I still wouldn’t pick him.   

This season there are several players on the rise who I believe might be prone to getting tagged. These include players such as Daniel Rich, Jack Watts, Dustin Martin and Hamish Hartlett. Hartlett is an outstanding young talent who could have a breakout year if he stays injury free. Opposition teams know this as shown by the Eagles during their NAB Cup game against Port. Hartlett was damaging early, as was Boak, but the Eagles sent Scott Selwood to Hartlett instead and he shut him down after half-time. Jack Watts is another guy who has tremendous upside playing the loose man role across half-back. Opposition sides are aware of this and once the real stuff begins they are likely to send a defensive forward tagger to Watts who, at times, has shown he is susceptible to being tagged out of games. Dustin Martin has also had trouble with tags in the past but has simply not been good enough in recent times to get tagged. If Martin bounces back this year he is likely to get some attention, but most of the focus will go to the likes of Cotchin and Deledio so he may be a safer bet than Watts. Daniel Rich’s fast start to the season will mean he’ll cop a lot of attention and it will be interesting to see if he can cope with the added fan fare from opposition taggers. I’m not convinced Rich can cope, but I’m happy to be proven wrong. Rich also has Nick Lower first up, which will be a good test after Lower’s job on Trent Cotchin. Cotchin showed that even he was prone when he wore a heavy tag from Lower all day in the NAB practice match against the Bulldogs. Although he had some important touches late Cotchin had his colours lowered on the day. 

On the other hand look at Gary Ablett. Every week he cops the opposition's best tagger and you know he doesn't enjoy it as evidenced by the Crowley fiasco on twitter last year. Yet Ablett is still able to have an influence and score well despite the tag. Last year only two players had more than 20 disposals against tagger Clint Jones. Ablett was one of them with 35 possessions. Ablett was also one of three players to win more than 20 possessions against Raines and he did it on two occasions. That's why he's first picked in my team every year. 

Remember no matter how good a player is, if they can’t break a tag then you don’t want them in your Supercoach team. 

Keep calm and don’t trade

Patrick Dangerfield scored a meagre 63 Supercoach points against the Bombers

If you are worried about some of your Supercoach selections after the weekend you’re probably not alone. Take solace in the fact that many coaches have Patrick Dangerfield, Brendon Goddard, and Dyson Heppell in their teams. It’s always easy in hindsight to rue the decisions you’ve made. ‘Why did I pick Dangerfield over Watson’ or ‘I should have gone with Mundy over Fyfe’. If these words ring true for you remind yourself that you picked these players for a reason and now’s not the time to jump off the bandwagon. Back your judgement, keep calm and don’t push the trade but just yet.

Over the past weekend there were some very ordinary performances. Many of our Supercoach stars were well down on their expected outputs and Patrick Dangerfield was one of the biggest. After a massive year in 2012, Dangerfield had shown signs he would become one of the premier midfielders in the competition. He started on fire against the Bombers on Friday night until they sent Heath Hocking to quell his influence. It worked and Dangerfield finished with a meagre 63 Supercoach points for the game. Then there’s the rising stars Dyson Heppell and Luke Shuey. Shuey was another victim of the tag, scoring only 56 Supercoach points after he was blanketed by Ryan Crowley for the entire game. Heppell like Dangerfield started well in the midfield, as expected, only to slow down in the second half to finish with 73 Supercoach points. All were well down on their projected scores. Others like Patrick Ryder (54 SC points), Paul Duffield (80 SC points) and Brendon Goddard (86 SC points) failed to produce. Even Nat Fyfe’s 96 points seemed disappointing if you chose him ahead of David Mundy (126 SC points) and Michael Barlow (144 SC points).

So what do we do now? Do we react to these disappointing scores and trade out our under-performing stars? That sounds like an easy solution. Trade out Dangerfield and bring in Watson. But what if Dangerfield comes out and scores 150 Supercoach points against the Lions next round? It wouldn’t be the first time a star like Dangerfield responded like this. In fact it happens quite a lot. The Crows also have an easier draw playing teams like the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast early. Although sides will try and tag Dangerfield each week they won’t have the same success that Hocking did on Friday night. The better solution is to keep Dangerfield and see how he plays next week. If he scores another 60 points then maybe consider a trade if he’s going to drop in price dramatically. Last year’s winner did this after round 2 when he traded Montagna out for Sam Mitchell. A bold move that paid off in the end, but initially it looked like it would backfire when Mitchell scored an 83 and a 55 in two of his next three games. I suppose this is the type of move that enabled him to win the overall competition. However, the norm is if you pick a premium it’s best to stick with them as they usually come good given time. It also saves a trade which comes in handy down the track.

This same line of thought goes for the other stars as well. Stick with Goddard, Heppell, and Ryder for now. Although it could be tempting with 30 trades this year, see how they respond next round before pulling the trigger and trading them out. Otherwise it’s likely to leave you with egg on your face. If they perform badly again then it gets a bit more complicated. It comes down to who the player is firstly, their scoring history in past years, and a judgement call by you. For example if Luke Shuey had another bad game I would consider trading him out. Shuey isn’t yet a proven star who has delivered premium scores consistently, although we were hoping for this to happen after a breakout season in 2012. Therefore it would make sense to jump off Shuey at $553K and jump on a Barlow ($509K) or Mundy ($477K) who are both cheaper options that look like delivering premium numbers this year. On the other hand I wouldn’t consider trading out Goddard. He is an elite Supercoach performer who has consistently delivered premium numbers. Goddard also had limited touches for his 86 Supercoach points. He’s a damaging player and when he gets more touches (which he will) his scoring output will increase dramatically.

Another mistake would be to make wholesale changes to your side this week in reaction to some of your selections not paying off. Although it’s possible it could work, it’s more likely to backfire. The players you change are likely to have big games as you initially thought. Besides some slight tweaking, trust your original judgements and stick with the players you’ve chosen.

When it comes to making trades after round 1 the only trades I would consider are forced trades due to injured players. Mark LeCras is a perfect example. He was just starting to look dangerous when he broke his arm and is now out for 4 weeks. A possible trade for LeCras would be his teammate Josh Kennedy. Kennedy was impressive in his return on the weekend kicking 2 goals on his way to 109 SC points. At $299K he would also give you another $69K in the bank to use elsewhere. Even so I would wait until round one is completed so you have a better idea of how everyone performs as you never know what can happen in the game of Supercoach.    

Ideally, I believe the best outcome is not to trade until the end of round two. One game doesn’t make a season and from experience this is especially true in Supercoach. Last year’s winner was ranked in the 60,000’s after the first two rounds yet went on to win as a result of making the right trades at the right time. Now is not the right time. Keep calm and don’t trade...not yet anyway.  

The 'Rookie-Cutter' Team

Ollie Wines has been a standout midfield rookie in the NAB Cup

When you make your initial Supercoach team it’s important to have a strategy. The ‘guns and rookies’ and ‘midpricer’ strategies are two popular approaches that have worked well for coaches in past years. However, within each approach there is usually a common thread in every team. This can be called the ‘cookie-cutter’ team. Whether it is in the backline, midfield or forward line you always find certain players locked into every side. These are players like Brendan Goddard, Gary Ablett and Buddy Franklin. While this isn’t necessarily a bad thing I’d like to propose a different approach when it comes to building your side in 2013. I call it the ‘rookie-cutter’ team approach. In this approach you let the quantity and quality of rookies available on each line dictate the structure of your side. I will explain how this strategy works by looking at the process of selecting each line of your Supercoach team.

Defence

This year you will find you’re not lacking options for rookie choices in defence. There is good quantity and quality to choose from. These include mature age players such as Brett Goodes ($128K), Lewis Steveson ($115K), Dean Terlich ($109K), and Jasper Pittard ($128K). You also have first year players Sam Colquhuon ($109K), Sam Docherty ($115K) and Nick Vlastuin ($159K). The mature age guys will definitely play and score well and the first year rookies will get game time at some stage, especially Vlastuin. Therefore I believe it is possible to structure your defence around 4-5 rookies. That will mean starting with at least 3 premiums and 5 rookies, 4 premiums and 4 rookies or 3 premiums, 1 midpricer and 4 rookies. Either way you are getting value for money and it would make no sense to stack your backline with extra premiums. Personally I like the 3 premium, 5 rookie approach as it frees up cash to spend elsewhere. You can then spend that extra money on a premium midfielder who will average more than your premium defender. The extra cash will also come in handy for your forward line with a lack of good forward rookie options.

Midfield

When it comes to rookies in the midfield we are spoilt for choice. We have the likes of Jack Viney ($109K), Brad Crouch ($115K), and Jaegar O’meara ($115K). O’Meara and Crouch have been impressive in the NAB Cup and we know Viney can play senior football. Then there is Ollie Wines ($169K) whose size and contested game style will mean he plays and scores well. A must have for your side. We also have some mature age guys to choose from like Matt Jones ($109K), Kane Mitchell ($126K) and Koby Stevens ($176K). If that isn’t enough I could go on with names such as Toumpas, Whitfield, Kent and Kommer. Like I said we are spoilt for choice. We have quality rookies capable of scoring highly and making you considerable cash to upgrade your team. As a result, I believe you should build your midfield structure around 4-5 rookies. That means starting with at least two rookies on the field, possibly three. This year I believe it is possible to do this due to the quality and quantity of midfield rookies available. We also have 10 midfield spots to fill (8 starting), so it will be difficult to have an adequate team elsewhere if we stack our midfield full of premiums. I will be looking at adopting a 5 rookie, 5 premium structure. However, at least one of my premiums will be a possible breakout player. The extra trades gives you room to take some risks. There is also room to have a midpricer within the structure, depending on your strategy.   

Ruck

Although the rucks continue to cause headaches this year, there are still enough rookies to fill our benches. This year Dan Currie ($115K) has stepped up as a legitimate mature age ruck option. A lot depends, however, on whether or not he can win the starting role from Goldstein. It seems unlikely at this stage and North won’t play both. Then there’s Majak Daw ($109K) and Sam Rowe ($115K) who could both see playing time, with Rowe being the more likely. Rowe also has dual status as a ruck/fwd so he could be crucial to have that link even if he doesn’t play. Mark Blicavs ($115K) is also an option. He's recently been made available as a ruckman and is a likely round one starter, but once Geelong's ruck stocks return there are no guarantees he will continue to play. There are other rookies like Jarrod Witts at Collingwood but they are unlikely to see enough action. Therefore I believe you should build your ruck structure around 2 rookies. That means starting with 2 premium rucks or 1 premium ruck and a midpriced ruck if you want to save cash. Your 2 premium rucks can also be on the cheaper side ($450-500K) as we have some potentially underpriced ruckmen in this price range (e.g. Kreuzer, Giles, Mumford, Goldstein, Bellchambers, etc). Having 3 rookies and starting Currie seems too risky at this stage.      

Forward

One of the biggest challenges for all coaches this year is finding quality rookie forwards. There are simply not many options. The main two options are Brent MaCaffer ($128K) and Jake Neade ($115K). Although Neade is small, he’s got speed and has been lively in the NAB Cup. However, if he plays he won’t score high and should be a bench option. Macaffer is in a similar boat. He will definitely play but is unlikely to average over 60-70 pts per game. There are others like Tom Lee ($115K) and Spangher ($128K) who could get a game, but no standouts. As a result I believe we need to build our forward line structure around midpriced players in 2013. We have an abundance of midpricers this year such as LeCras ($369K), Monfries ($356K), Kennedy ($299K), Varcoe ($268K), Karnezis ($262K), Knights ($248K) and Byrnes ($230K). Some of these guys are fully capable of scoring 80-90 points per game, which will help generate enough cash for premium upgrades. It will also keep you competitive in the overall competition until you are able to upgrade. It’s even possible one of them could produce premium like numbers and become a keeper. However, to be able to afford these midpriced players you will need to have ample rookies in the midfield and defence to free up enough cash. If you do this you will be able to have a structure of 3-4 premiums in your forward line, with 2-3 midpricers and 2 rookies on the bench.

So this year when you come to selecting your side think carefully about your strategy and team structure. Rather than using a default 'guns and rookies' or 'midpricer' approach, I recommend you take advantage of the number of good rookies available in the defence and midfield and spend the extra cash where you need it most.

Breakout Kings

Who will breakout and join the Supercoach elite in 2013?

Daniel Rich has had an outstanding NAB Cup campaign and looks ready to breakout

Every year there is a few standout players who make the jump from Supercoach obscurity to Supercoach elite. This is what we call a breakout player and they are not easy to find.  We can all pick the guns and it’s not overly hard to find the right rookies, especially with all the help on the internet these days. However it’s extremely tough to find those players in the middle range who will increase their point average from 70-90 to 110 plus. This takes a lot of hard work, skill and some good fortune from the Supercoach gods.  

When it comes to breakout players, Patrick Dangerfield is a prime example. Dangerfield was selected at pick 10 in the 2007 draft. He was drafted with big expectations and had been considered as a breakout contender by Supercoach experts in 2010 and 2011 with no success. You may have had Dangerfield in your team expecting him to deliver. I know I did. Yet each year he failed to deliver. At the beginning of the 2012 season Dangerfield was priced at $435,500 with an average of 80.3. He was now entering his fifth season and many had written him off. They had been burnt one too many times. However those who stuck with him were rewarded handsomely. Dangerfield finally delivered on his potential averaging 118.9 points per game. In one season he went from breakout contender to breakout king. He is now priced at $636,000 going into the 2013 season and currently a popular selection in many Supercoach sides. As with Dangerfield, most high draft picks become elite at some stage in their career. The challenge is working out when that will happen. It’s all about timing. As hard as it might seem, there are some indicators that can help pinpoint the right timing for these breakout kings.

Firstly, they are usually players you know quite well. They are not big secrets and you know they have the potential to produce career best numbers. Secondly, they are normally high draft picks who haven’t lived up to the expectations placed on them. Thirdly, they are often players who are in their third, fourth or fifth seasons, but not always. Dangerfield is a perfect example who fits these three categories. He was in his fifth season, we all knew about him and had him in our teams expecting a breakout. He was also a top draft pick who hadn’t lived up to the hype surrounding him. Other indicators to look out for are a change in roles or clubs. A common example of this is a player moving from a forward position to a prominent midfield role (Dangerfield did exactly this last year). The same can happen when a player changes clubs and has more opportunities in his new team (Brad Ebert last season). Also look for a player who is finally healthy after several injury setbacks. Sometimes this can be the key factor holding them back from a breakout year. Finally, look for signs in the preseason competition that they could be about to breakout. How they play in the NAB Cup may indicate they are about to take that next step.

Based on these indicators I have listed eight possible breakout contenders for 2013.

Jack Watts        

$460,100, avg: 86.0, pick 1 2008, 5th season

Jack Watts finally seems to have found a home playing across half back for the Dees. Watts was moved into defence in round 8 last year after returning from injury and he was an instant success. Often playing as the loose man, he was outstanding at reading the play and ranked elite for intercept possessions and marks. Through rounds 8-15 Watts ranked first in the AFL for intercept possessions, averaging 102 Supercoach points per game before being injured. Watts has continued to play this role throughout the 2013 NAB Cup with promising signs. He exploded in Melbourne's last game against the Suns amassing 165 Supercoach points. All indicators point to a breakout season in 2013.   

Daniel Rich

$485,500, avg: 90.8, pick 7 2009, 4th season

Rich is ticking all the boxes for a breakout season and continued to impress with 25 disposals, one goal and 131 SuperCoach points against the Pies in round three of the NAB Cup. He was also impressive in the NAB Cup openers with 21 touches over the two shortened games. Topped it off with a best on ground performance in the NAB Cup final. Rich took steps in the right direction last season rating above-average in clearances and averaging one goal per game. This trend should continue as I expect Rich to become an elite midfielder after taking his fitness base to the next level. With Brisbane on the rise, there’s every indication it will happen this year.     

Dustin Martin

$473,500 avg: 88.5, pick 3 2009, 4th season 
Richmond coach Damian Hardwick says Dustin Martin is a must have for your Supercoach team. Martin, who has had his fair share of troubles off the field, is entering his fourth year fitter, more settled and ready to play the sort of football he's always looked capable of according to Hardwick. The coach also believes the recent stability in his life and close relationship with Mark Williams will be the making of him as a player. Was best a field in only half a game in the Tigers close win over the Bombers. Has burnt many coaches over the last few years but, like Dangerfield in 2012, this could be the year Martin finally has a breakout season.

Hamish Hartlett

$489,000, avg: 91.4, pick 4 2008, 5th season 
The only thing holding Hartlett back from becoming elite are his injuries. Before being injured last season, Hartlett was ranked first at his club for contested possessions. Has had a full preseason and looks to be finally over his injury woes. Shown he is ready to take the next step with an impressive NAB Cup campaign. Hartlett was super against Melbourne with 23 possessions, three goals and 135 Supercoach points. Now in his 5th season, Hartlett is fully capable of increasing his average from 91 points to 100 plus in 2013. Plays primarily in the midfield yet he can be chosen as a defender. An outstanding talent who has tremendous upside.

Dan Hannebery

$439,700, avg: 77.2, pick 30 2008, 5th season

Not a top ten pick but there’s been big wraps on Hannebery for a while now and he showed us what he can do in last year’s Finals series. Hannebery averaged 30 disposals, 12 contested, and five tackles per game throughout the 2012 finals, signs he is coming of age. Now in his fifth season, Hannebery is ready to take the next step. Was impressive with 114 and 97 Supercoach points in rounds two and three of the NAB Cup racking up contested possessions. A unique pick who is on the verge of breaking out and he comes cheap.  

Dyson Heppell

$450,000, avg: 84.1, pick 7 2010, 3rd season

Heppell has become a consistent performer for the Bombers since entering the league in 2011, averaging 83 and 84 pts per game over the last two years playing off half back. However this year the Bombers have earmarked him for a move into the midfield. Throughout the NAB Cup Heppell has been impressive playing predominantly in the midfield. Scored 97 Supercoach points in just over half a game against the Giants before being subbed off. Look for Heppell to increase his average considerably and take big steps playing as a midfielder in season 2013. Lock him in your defence as this will be the last year he will be available as a backman.    

Travis Boak

$481,500, avg: 90.0, pick 5, 2006, 7th season

Boak is a high draft pick who’s been on the cusp of becoming an elite midfielder for three seasons. Last year he recorded above-average numbers for disposals with 24 per game. Has shown he’s capable of producing high scores with games of 119, 138, 128 and 134 in 2012, but needs to do it more consistently if he’s going to take the next step. Boak scored 115 Supercoach points in his NAB Cup game against the Eagles, collecting 24 possessions (12 contested), 5 clearances, 8 inside 50’s and 4 tackles. He backed this up with 135 Supercoach points against the reigning premiers, finishing with 29 disposals (14 contested), 6 tackles, 5 clearances and 3 goals. Seems more settled now he’s made the decision to stay at Port Adelaide and looks ready to lead from the front as Port's skipper. In his 7th year so the time is now for Boak to breakout! 

Who do you think is ready to take that next step and become a breakout king?

The Barlow Factor: Mature Age Rookie Sensations

Three years ago Michael Barlow became an overnight rookie sensation. He burst onto the scene with 33 disposals, 2 goals and 151 Supercoach points.  Not a bad return for a rookie who only cost around $100,000! Those who had him in their side couldn’t believe their luck, and those who didn’t, soon traded him into their team. The 23 year old had been knocked back by several AFL clubs before finally getting his chance and proving the doubters wrong. As Supercoach fans will know, Barlow went on to average 116 SC points per game before tragically breaking his leg and every Supercoacher’s heart. Along the way Barlow posted huge scores of 151 (twice), 139, 132, 126, 138, and 146. Barlow’s success helped pave the way for the mature age footballer and opened the eyes of every Supercoach coach. In addition, with draft picks going to Gold Coast and GWS, AFL scouts started looking to the VFL (and SANFL, WAFL) for the next Michael Barlow. They weren’t disappointed. This opened the door for what we now call the ‘mature age rookie’ in Supercoach.

Mature age rookies have unique advantages over their younger draftees. Firstly, they have had several years to build their fitness and body size. Secondly, they have gained invaluable experience in the VFL or equivalent competitions playing against other mature bodies. Thirdly, their knock backs have only made them more determined. As a result they are hardened, hungry and ready for a crack at the big time. When they get their opportunity, they are often able to make an immediate impact at senior AFL level.   

There have been several mature age rookies in recent years, who have delivered above average scores and handsome profits. Who can forget names such as James Podsiadly, Tendai Mzungu, and Isaac Smith, and more recently Dayne Zorko, Jonathon Giles and Sam Gibson. Many of them were cheap options who scored well and eventually enabled you to generate enough cash for premium upgrades. Others like Zorko scored premium numbers and became keepers. Every one became a crucial part in propelling our Supercoach side to that next level. But how do you find these mature age rookie sensations?

Here are a few positive indicators to look for when assessing a mature age player:

1. Able to dominate at a lower level. Players like Barlow and Gibson regularly racked up 30 plus possessions in the VFL. Barlow was also second in the J.J.Liston trophy awarded for best player in the VFL.

2. Given opportunity to play. Nathan Blee is an example of not getting opportunity with Port Adelaide last year, despite being in a bottom side.  

3. Given time to play in a position that has potential to score well for Supercoach. For example in the midfield or even on a half back/wing. Look to see where they play in the NAB Cup as this is likely how the coach will use them come round one. The likes of Barlow, Zorko and Gibson all had free reign to run through the midfield and gather possessions.   

4. Playing for a bottom side. Mature aged rookies are more likely (not guaranteed) to get opportunities in teams who are struggling and need help like Melbourne and Port Adelaide.

5. Good Preseason Form. This is possibly their last crack at an AFL career so they won’t be holding back. If they play well in the NAB Cup, get on!

Remember these are only indicators, but if they are ticking all or most of these boxes then they are likely to have a considerable impact come round one.   

Here are 10 mature age players to consider in 2013

Kane Mitchell, age 23, (PTA) mid $126,200

Mitchell has already played five years of senior football, winning the 2012 Sandover Medal for best player in the WAFL. He was a state representative for WA and averaged 25 possessions last year. He also kicked 30 goals. These qualities liken him to rookies like Barlow and Zorko. Mitchell blitzed at Port's recent practice match. Also had a solid performance in first round of NAB Cup games. His hard running and good decision skills stood out. Look for Mitchell to get elevated off the rookie list to help a struggling Port Adelaide side. 

Sam Dwyer, age 26, (COL) mid/fwd $96,100

Dwyer has won a best and fairest at every level, and was a premiership player with Port Melbourne (2011) and a state representative last year (2012). He has already made an impact in the midfield at the Pies recent intra-club match. Showed a bit in the opening NAB Cup game and will only get better with more game time. If he is able to break into the Collingwood side, don’t overlook him!

Dean Terlich, age 23, (MEL) def $109,500

Played in the SANFL last season, averaging 21 disposals, six marks and five rebound 50’s per game playing across the half back. He also was best on ground in Norwood’s grand final win finishing with 31 disposals and 14 marks. Terlich was drafted to play a similar role at Melbourne. Equitted himself well in first NAB Cup game and should only get better. Expect him to play round one and make an immediate impact. 

Matt Jones, age 25, (MEL) mid $109,500

Jones played 17 games for Box Hill in the VFL last season. He averaged 20 disposals, 13 uncontested possessions, three inside 50’s, three tackles and three clearances per game. Jones also rated highly in disposal efficiency, so he can use the ball well. An important facet to score well in Supercoach. Showed encouraging signs in his first NAB game for Melbourne. Another mature age recruit who should play early for the Dees.  

Dylan Van Unen, age 22, (ESS) def $109,500

Played for Frankston in the VFL in 2012 finishing in the top five at their best and fairest. Van Unen is a defender who can also play forward. He averaged 14 disposals per game, but ranked first for his side in intercept possessions, which scores highly in Supercoach. Didn't get an opportunity in opening NAB Cup round. Should see him at some stage. Van Unen won’t be the next Barlow but he could be a good cash cow if he gets an opportunity. 

Brett Goodes, age 28, (WBD) mid/def $128,400

Has played over 100 VFL games, which includes a J.J.Liston trophy in 2008 and two premierships with North Ballarat. Goodes was named in the VFL team of the year in 2012, averaging 20 disposals, 11 contested possessions, six tackles and six clearances per game. Has plenty of experience and will play across half back for the Bulldogs. Already showed good form for the indigenous All-Stars and in the opening NAB Cup game. Look for Goodes to be elevated off the rookie list and play round one.

Tom Lee, age 21, (STK), fwd $115,900

Lee has played three seasons in the WAFL for Claremont and kicked 60 goals in 2012. He is a dangerous forward with an accurate kick. Lee finished runner up in Claremont’s Best and Fairest and third in the WAFL’s goal-kicking. The Saints gave up pick 12 for Lee, showing how highly they rate him. He  presented well during the intra-club match but wasn't rewarded for his efforts. Struggled early on in Nab Cup games but started showing signs and kicked a goal. He could make you some quick cash if he plays.      

Dean Towers, age 22, (SYD) mid $114,500

Towers is a running half back/outside midfielder who has been likened to Isaac Smith. He has explosive speed and an amazing vertical leap. He averaged 15 disposals, 10 uncontested possessions and three inside 50’s per game in the VFL last year. Towers also won the 2012 Fothergill-Round Medal for most promising young talent in the VFL. Formerly won by Ahmed Saad, Michael Hibberd and Michael Barlow. Showed flashes of brilliance in Sydney's NAB Cup games and is capable at AFL level. Might find it hard to break into the reigning premiers side but the Swans wouldn't have used their first round pick on him for nothing. Watch closely.

Jarryd Cachia, age 21, (CAR) mid $118,200

Cachia was previously on Carlton’s rookie list (2010 and 2011), but moved to play for Norwood in the SANFL last year. He was named on the interchange bench for the SANFL Team Of The Year, and averaged 21 disposals, four tackles and three clearances per game. Cachia is a hard nut and fierce tackler. If given opportunity at Carlton he will make an immediate impact. Didn't play in the opening round of NAB cup so monitor his progress.

Daniel Currie, age 23, (NTH) ruck $109,500

Currie spent five seasons with Sydney and failed to play a game. He then moved to the SANFL and played with North Adelaide where he won the fourth most hit-outs of any player in the competition. He averaged 11 disposals, four marks and 23 hit-outs per game. North got him to bolster their ruck stocks after losing Hamish MacIntosh. Was impressive in opening NAB Cup game putting himself into contention to support Goldstein. Should play at some stage. A great bench option for your rucks.

It is also worth noting that mature age recruits Nick Kommer (age 22, ESS, mid $109,500) and Kyle Martin (age 22, COL, mid $110,200) made impressive debuts in the opening round of the NAB Cup. Martin won the Best and Fairest for Frankston in the VFL last season and was named in the VFL team of the year. He averaged 26 possessions per game last season and looks like he will score well if given opportunity. Track them both closely.  


At this stage, the standouts for me are Kane Mitchell, Brett Goodes, Dean Currie and  Dean Towers. Mitchell’s resume reminds me a lot of Barlow’s. He dominated at SANFL level, has a good engine and will get plenty of opportunity to play through the midfield for Port Adelaide. Goodes similarly dominated in the VFL and will slot right into a struggling Bulldogs outfit. Wherever he plays he has class, speed and skill. He is a great tackler and can also kick a goal. Currie looked at home in his first game and dominated the centre with 12 hit-outs. He was also well endorsed by coach Brad Scott. Lock him for your ruck bench. Towers can definitely play and showed he is fully capable at AFL level. Sydney have a knack of finding hidden gems and it looks like Towers will be another, so long as he gets an opportunity.  

The only thing now is to see these guys play throughout the NAB Cup series. Then will we have a better idea as to who will be the next mature age rookie sensation. There could just be another Michael Barlow waiting to burst onto the scene.

Who do you think will be this year’s Michael Barlow?

The Supercoach Advisor

You can visit my Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/supercoachadvisor 

Or follow me on twitter @the_sc_advisor