Keep calm and don’t trade

Patrick Dangerfield scored a meagre 63 Supercoach points against the Bombers

If you are worried about some of your Supercoach selections after the weekend you’re probably not alone. Take solace in the fact that many coaches have Patrick Dangerfield, Brendon Goddard, and Dyson Heppell in their teams. It’s always easy in hindsight to rue the decisions you’ve made. ‘Why did I pick Dangerfield over Watson’ or ‘I should have gone with Mundy over Fyfe’. If these words ring true for you remind yourself that you picked these players for a reason and now’s not the time to jump off the bandwagon. Back your judgement, keep calm and don’t push the trade but just yet.

Over the past weekend there were some very ordinary performances. Many of our Supercoach stars were well down on their expected outputs and Patrick Dangerfield was one of the biggest. After a massive year in 2012, Dangerfield had shown signs he would become one of the premier midfielders in the competition. He started on fire against the Bombers on Friday night until they sent Heath Hocking to quell his influence. It worked and Dangerfield finished with a meagre 63 Supercoach points for the game. Then there’s the rising stars Dyson Heppell and Luke Shuey. Shuey was another victim of the tag, scoring only 56 Supercoach points after he was blanketed by Ryan Crowley for the entire game. Heppell like Dangerfield started well in the midfield, as expected, only to slow down in the second half to finish with 73 Supercoach points. All were well down on their projected scores. Others like Patrick Ryder (54 SC points), Paul Duffield (80 SC points) and Brendon Goddard (86 SC points) failed to produce. Even Nat Fyfe’s 96 points seemed disappointing if you chose him ahead of David Mundy (126 SC points) and Michael Barlow (144 SC points).

So what do we do now? Do we react to these disappointing scores and trade out our under-performing stars? That sounds like an easy solution. Trade out Dangerfield and bring in Watson. But what if Dangerfield comes out and scores 150 Supercoach points against the Lions next round? It wouldn’t be the first time a star like Dangerfield responded like this. In fact it happens quite a lot. The Crows also have an easier draw playing teams like the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast early. Although sides will try and tag Dangerfield each week they won’t have the same success that Hocking did on Friday night. The better solution is to keep Dangerfield and see how he plays next week. If he scores another 60 points then maybe consider a trade if he’s going to drop in price dramatically. Last year’s winner did this after round 2 when he traded Montagna out for Sam Mitchell. A bold move that paid off in the end, but initially it looked like it would backfire when Mitchell scored an 83 and a 55 in two of his next three games. I suppose this is the type of move that enabled him to win the overall competition. However, the norm is if you pick a premium it’s best to stick with them as they usually come good given time. It also saves a trade which comes in handy down the track.

This same line of thought goes for the other stars as well. Stick with Goddard, Heppell, and Ryder for now. Although it could be tempting with 30 trades this year, see how they respond next round before pulling the trigger and trading them out. Otherwise it’s likely to leave you with egg on your face. If they perform badly again then it gets a bit more complicated. It comes down to who the player is firstly, their scoring history in past years, and a judgement call by you. For example if Luke Shuey had another bad game I would consider trading him out. Shuey isn’t yet a proven star who has delivered premium scores consistently, although we were hoping for this to happen after a breakout season in 2012. Therefore it would make sense to jump off Shuey at $553K and jump on a Barlow ($509K) or Mundy ($477K) who are both cheaper options that look like delivering premium numbers this year. On the other hand I wouldn’t consider trading out Goddard. He is an elite Supercoach performer who has consistently delivered premium numbers. Goddard also had limited touches for his 86 Supercoach points. He’s a damaging player and when he gets more touches (which he will) his scoring output will increase dramatically.

Another mistake would be to make wholesale changes to your side this week in reaction to some of your selections not paying off. Although it’s possible it could work, it’s more likely to backfire. The players you change are likely to have big games as you initially thought. Besides some slight tweaking, trust your original judgements and stick with the players you’ve chosen.

When it comes to making trades after round 1 the only trades I would consider are forced trades due to injured players. Mark LeCras is a perfect example. He was just starting to look dangerous when he broke his arm and is now out for 4 weeks. A possible trade for LeCras would be his teammate Josh Kennedy. Kennedy was impressive in his return on the weekend kicking 2 goals on his way to 109 SC points. At $299K he would also give you another $69K in the bank to use elsewhere. Even so I would wait until round one is completed so you have a better idea of how everyone performs as you never know what can happen in the game of Supercoach.    

Ideally, I believe the best outcome is not to trade until the end of round two. One game doesn’t make a season and from experience this is especially true in Supercoach. Last year’s winner was ranked in the 60,000’s after the first two rounds yet went on to win as a result of making the right trades at the right time. Now is not the right time. Keep calm and don’t trade...not yet anyway.