Breakout Kings

Who will breakout and join the Supercoach elite in 2013?

Daniel Rich has had an outstanding NAB Cup campaign and looks ready to breakout

Every year there is a few standout players who make the jump from Supercoach obscurity to Supercoach elite. This is what we call a breakout player and they are not easy to find.  We can all pick the guns and it’s not overly hard to find the right rookies, especially with all the help on the internet these days. However it’s extremely tough to find those players in the middle range who will increase their point average from 70-90 to 110 plus. This takes a lot of hard work, skill and some good fortune from the Supercoach gods.  

When it comes to breakout players, Patrick Dangerfield is a prime example. Dangerfield was selected at pick 10 in the 2007 draft. He was drafted with big expectations and had been considered as a breakout contender by Supercoach experts in 2010 and 2011 with no success. You may have had Dangerfield in your team expecting him to deliver. I know I did. Yet each year he failed to deliver. At the beginning of the 2012 season Dangerfield was priced at $435,500 with an average of 80.3. He was now entering his fifth season and many had written him off. They had been burnt one too many times. However those who stuck with him were rewarded handsomely. Dangerfield finally delivered on his potential averaging 118.9 points per game. In one season he went from breakout contender to breakout king. He is now priced at $636,000 going into the 2013 season and currently a popular selection in many Supercoach sides. As with Dangerfield, most high draft picks become elite at some stage in their career. The challenge is working out when that will happen. It’s all about timing. As hard as it might seem, there are some indicators that can help pinpoint the right timing for these breakout kings.

Firstly, they are usually players you know quite well. They are not big secrets and you know they have the potential to produce career best numbers. Secondly, they are normally high draft picks who haven’t lived up to the expectations placed on them. Thirdly, they are often players who are in their third, fourth or fifth seasons, but not always. Dangerfield is a perfect example who fits these three categories. He was in his fifth season, we all knew about him and had him in our teams expecting a breakout. He was also a top draft pick who hadn’t lived up to the hype surrounding him. Other indicators to look out for are a change in roles or clubs. A common example of this is a player moving from a forward position to a prominent midfield role (Dangerfield did exactly this last year). The same can happen when a player changes clubs and has more opportunities in his new team (Brad Ebert last season). Also look for a player who is finally healthy after several injury setbacks. Sometimes this can be the key factor holding them back from a breakout year. Finally, look for signs in the preseason competition that they could be about to breakout. How they play in the NAB Cup may indicate they are about to take that next step.

Based on these indicators I have listed eight possible breakout contenders for 2013.

Jack Watts        

$460,100, avg: 86.0, pick 1 2008, 5th season

Jack Watts finally seems to have found a home playing across half back for the Dees. Watts was moved into defence in round 8 last year after returning from injury and he was an instant success. Often playing as the loose man, he was outstanding at reading the play and ranked elite for intercept possessions and marks. Through rounds 8-15 Watts ranked first in the AFL for intercept possessions, averaging 102 Supercoach points per game before being injured. Watts has continued to play this role throughout the 2013 NAB Cup with promising signs. He exploded in Melbourne's last game against the Suns amassing 165 Supercoach points. All indicators point to a breakout season in 2013.   

Daniel Rich

$485,500, avg: 90.8, pick 7 2009, 4th season

Rich is ticking all the boxes for a breakout season and continued to impress with 25 disposals, one goal and 131 SuperCoach points against the Pies in round three of the NAB Cup. He was also impressive in the NAB Cup openers with 21 touches over the two shortened games. Topped it off with a best on ground performance in the NAB Cup final. Rich took steps in the right direction last season rating above-average in clearances and averaging one goal per game. This trend should continue as I expect Rich to become an elite midfielder after taking his fitness base to the next level. With Brisbane on the rise, there’s every indication it will happen this year.     

Dustin Martin

$473,500 avg: 88.5, pick 3 2009, 4th season 
Richmond coach Damian Hardwick says Dustin Martin is a must have for your Supercoach team. Martin, who has had his fair share of troubles off the field, is entering his fourth year fitter, more settled and ready to play the sort of football he's always looked capable of according to Hardwick. The coach also believes the recent stability in his life and close relationship with Mark Williams will be the making of him as a player. Was best a field in only half a game in the Tigers close win over the Bombers. Has burnt many coaches over the last few years but, like Dangerfield in 2012, this could be the year Martin finally has a breakout season.

Hamish Hartlett

$489,000, avg: 91.4, pick 4 2008, 5th season 
The only thing holding Hartlett back from becoming elite are his injuries. Before being injured last season, Hartlett was ranked first at his club for contested possessions. Has had a full preseason and looks to be finally over his injury woes. Shown he is ready to take the next step with an impressive NAB Cup campaign. Hartlett was super against Melbourne with 23 possessions, three goals and 135 Supercoach points. Now in his 5th season, Hartlett is fully capable of increasing his average from 91 points to 100 plus in 2013. Plays primarily in the midfield yet he can be chosen as a defender. An outstanding talent who has tremendous upside.

Dan Hannebery

$439,700, avg: 77.2, pick 30 2008, 5th season

Not a top ten pick but there’s been big wraps on Hannebery for a while now and he showed us what he can do in last year’s Finals series. Hannebery averaged 30 disposals, 12 contested, and five tackles per game throughout the 2012 finals, signs he is coming of age. Now in his fifth season, Hannebery is ready to take the next step. Was impressive with 114 and 97 Supercoach points in rounds two and three of the NAB Cup racking up contested possessions. A unique pick who is on the verge of breaking out and he comes cheap.  

Dyson Heppell

$450,000, avg: 84.1, pick 7 2010, 3rd season

Heppell has become a consistent performer for the Bombers since entering the league in 2011, averaging 83 and 84 pts per game over the last two years playing off half back. However this year the Bombers have earmarked him for a move into the midfield. Throughout the NAB Cup Heppell has been impressive playing predominantly in the midfield. Scored 97 Supercoach points in just over half a game against the Giants before being subbed off. Look for Heppell to increase his average considerably and take big steps playing as a midfielder in season 2013. Lock him in your defence as this will be the last year he will be available as a backman.    

Travis Boak

$481,500, avg: 90.0, pick 5, 2006, 7th season

Boak is a high draft pick who’s been on the cusp of becoming an elite midfielder for three seasons. Last year he recorded above-average numbers for disposals with 24 per game. Has shown he’s capable of producing high scores with games of 119, 138, 128 and 134 in 2012, but needs to do it more consistently if he’s going to take the next step. Boak scored 115 Supercoach points in his NAB Cup game against the Eagles, collecting 24 possessions (12 contested), 5 clearances, 8 inside 50’s and 4 tackles. He backed this up with 135 Supercoach points against the reigning premiers, finishing with 29 disposals (14 contested), 6 tackles, 5 clearances and 3 goals. Seems more settled now he’s made the decision to stay at Port Adelaide and looks ready to lead from the front as Port's skipper. In his 7th year so the time is now for Boak to breakout! 

Who do you think is ready to take that next step and become a breakout king?