Tuesday, 19 March 2013

The 'Rookie-Cutter' Team

Ollie Wines has been a standout midfield rookie in the NAB Cup


When you make your initial Supercoach team it’s important to have a strategy. The ‘guns and rookies’ and ‘midpricer’ strategies are two popular approaches that have worked well for coaches in past years. However, within each approach there is usually a common thread in every team. This can be called the ‘cookie-cutter’ team. Whether it is in the backline, midfield or forward line you always find certain players locked into every side. These are players like Brendan Goddard, Gary Ablett and Buddy Franklin. While this isn’t necessarily a bad thing I’d like to propose a different approach when it comes to building your side in 2013. I call it the ‘rookie-cutter’ team approach. In this approach you let the quantity and quality of rookies available on each line dictate the structure of your side. I will explain how this strategy works by looking at the process of selecting each line of your Supercoach team.

Defence
This year you will find you’re not lacking options for rookie choices in defence. There is good quantity and quality to choose from. These include mature age players such as Brett Goodes ($128K), Lewis Steveson ($115K), Dean Terlich ($109K), and Jasper Pittard ($128K). You also have first year players Sam Colquhuon ($109K), Sam Docherty ($115K) and Nick Vlastuin ($159K). The mature age guys will definitely play and score well and the first year rookies will get game time at some stage, especially Vlastuin. Therefore I believe it is possible to structure your defence around 4-5 rookies. That will mean starting with at least 3 premiums and 5 rookies, 4 premiums and 4 rookies or 3 premiums, 1 midpricer and 4 rookies. Either way you are getting value for money and it would make no sense to stack your backline with extra premiums. Personally I like the 3 premium, 5 rookie approach as it frees up cash to spend elsewhere. You can then spend that extra money on a premium midfielder who will average more than your premium defender. The extra cash will also come in handy for your forward line with a lack of good forward rookie options.


Midfield
When it comes to rookies in the midfield we are spoilt for choice. We have the likes of Jack Viney ($109K), Brad Crouch ($115K), and Jaegar O’meara ($115K). O’Meara and Crouch have been impressive in the NAB Cup and we know Viney can play senior football. Then there is Ollie Wines ($169K) whose size and contested game style will mean he plays and scores well. A must have for your side. We also have some mature age guys to choose from like Matt Jones ($109K), Kane Mitchell ($126K) and Koby Stevens ($176K). If that isn’t enough I could go on with names such as Toumpas, Whitfield, Kent and Kommer. Like I said we are spoilt for choice. We have quality rookies capable of scoring highly and making you considerable cash to upgrade your team. As a result, I believe you should build your midfield structure around 4-5 rookies. That means starting with at least two rookies on the field, possibly three. This year I believe it is possible to do this due to the quality and quantity of midfield rookies available. We also have 10 midfield spots to fill (8 starting), so it will be difficult to have an adequate team elsewhere if we stack our midfield full of premiums. I will be looking at adopting a 5 rookie, 5 premium structure. However, at least one of my premiums will be a possible breakout player. The extra trades gives you room to take some risks. There is also room to have a midpricer within the structure, depending on your strategy.   

Ruck
Although the rucks continue to cause headaches this year, there are still enough rookies to fill our benches. This year Dan Currie ($115K) has stepped up as a legitimate mature age ruck option. A lot depends, however, on whether or not he can win the starting role from Goldstein. It seems unlikely at this stage and North won’t play both. Then there’s Majak Daw ($109K) and Sam Rowe ($115K) who could both see playing time, with Rowe being the more likely. Rowe also has dual status as a ruck/fwd so he could be crucial to have that link even if he doesn’t play. Mark Blicavs ($115K) is also an option. He's recently been made available as a ruckman and is a likely round one starter, but once Geelong's ruck stocks return there are no guarantees he will continue to play. There are other rookies like Jarrod Witts at Collingwood but they are unlikely to see enough action. Therefore I believe you should build your ruck structure around 2 rookies. That means starting with 2 premium rucks or 1 premium ruck and a midpriced ruck if you want to save cash. Your 2 premium rucks can also be on the cheaper side ($450-500K) as we have some potentially underpriced ruckmen in this price range (e.g. Kreuzer, Giles, Mumford, Goldstein, Bellchambers, etc). Having 3 rookies and starting Currie seems too risky at this stage.      

Forward
One of the biggest challenges for all coaches this year is finding quality rookie forwards. There are simply not many options. The main two options are Brent MaCaffer ($128K) and Jake Neade ($115K). Although Neade is small, he’s got speed and has been lively in the NAB Cup. However, if he plays he won’t score high and should be a bench option. Macaffer is in a similar boat. He will definitely play but is unlikely to average over 60-70 pts per game. There are others like Tom Lee ($115K) and Spangher ($128K) who could get a game, but no standouts. As a result I believe we need to build our forward line structure around midpriced players in 2013. We have an abundance of midpricers this year such as LeCras ($369K), Monfries ($356K), Kennedy ($299K), Varcoe ($268K), Karnezis ($262K), Knights ($248K) and Byrnes ($230K). Some of these guys are fully capable of scoring 80-90 points per game, which will help generate enough cash for premium upgrades. It will also keep you competitive in the overall competition until you are able to upgrade. It’s even possible one of them could produce premium like numbers and become a keeper. However, to be able to afford these midpriced players you will need to have ample rookies in the midfield and defence to free up enough cash. If you do this you will be able to have a structure of 3-4 premiums in your forward line, with 2-3 midpricers and 2 rookies on the bench.

So this year when you come to selecting your side think carefully about your strategy and team structure. Rather than using a default 'guns and rookies' or 'midpricer' approach, I recommend you take advantage of the number of good rookies available in the defence and midfield and spend the extra cash where you need it most.

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