Undervalued, Overlooked or simply no good?

Brad Ebert was undervalued due to lack of opportunities at the Eagles

One of the challenges of Supercoach is to find the undervalued or bargain priced player. This is a player who represents value for money. In Supercoach these are usually mid-priced players that can range anywhere between $200,000 and $450,000. Finding the right player can be a challenge because at the time their value isn’t obvious. Last year’s Supercoach winner, Powertothepeople, started his side with six of these mid-priced players. Two became keepers and the other four were traded out for a considerable profit. He chose players such as Hamish MacIntosh ($364K), Jack Grimes ($380K), Brian Lake ($287K), and Luke Parker ($282K). Not certain starters in every Supercoach side. Yet he saw their potential. How was he able to identify them?

Here are four categories that can help you identify a potential bargain in Supercoach:

1. A player who is underpriced due to an injury.

2. A player who lacked opportunities, but has now been given a more prominent role at his own club or especially a new club. 

3. A third or fourth year player who has shown signs of potential and is threatening to have a breakout season. Just like Patty Dangerfield in 2012.

4. Mature Age players who can slot straight in and play a role in their team. Remember Michael Barlow a few years back and Sam Gibson last year (They are an exception to the mid priced rule, normally priced around 100K).

Last season I identified Brad Ebert as fitting into the second category. He lacked opportunities at the Eagles and went to Port Adelaide where he was given a midfield role. Many teams overlooked him as Ebert had only averaged 57, 63, 70, and 64 Supercoach points through his first four seasons. His price of $344,000 seemed hefty for such meagre averages. However, those who saw his potential were handsomely rewarded. Ebert went on to average 100 Supercoach points per game in 2012. He reached a peak price of $504,000 after round 12 and finished the season priced at $484,500. That’s an increase of $140,500 at the end of the season and $160,000 if you decided to trade him out after round 12. For many teams he became a keeper (saving a trade) and for others he was upgraded to a premium midfielder. Identifying these types of players is what helped Powertothepeople get ahead of the pack last year.

In 2013 I am anticipating an even greater importance on identifying the value for money player. In previous years we’ve had an abundance of rookies and mature age players to choose from with the introduction of the Gold Coast and GWS. Not so this year. You also need to find two additional midfield players. This is going to make it a lot harder to find a sufficient amount of cheap rookies to score the points you need each week. Enter the mid-priced player. Finding that value for money mid-priced player will help you fill these extra positions. It will also give you a reliable scoring player who will either make you money or become a keeper and save you trades.     

Here are 10 potential bargains worth considering in 2013:

Shannon Byrnes (MEL) fwd $230,100

Will get more opportunities at Melbourne and averaged around 80 points per game when he played consistently at Geelong. Kicked five goals in Melbourne's recent practice match and was the clear standout. 

Travis Varcoe (GEL) mid/fwd $268,900

Has been earmarked for a Leon Davis type role across half-back and midfield. Played this role in opening NAB Cup round and looked solid. More importantly he seemed healthy again. If fit and playing come round 1 he could be a steal. 

Cam Pedersen (MEL) def/ruc $278,200  

Limited opportunites last year but starred in VFL. Good chance of producing decent scores if given game time. Unique option for your defence. 

Andrew Embley (WCE) mid $283,600

Struck down by injuries last year. Way underpriced for what he can produce on the open spaces of Subiaco. Slowly worked his way back during opening NAB games. Tackled well which is a good sign he's over his shoulder injuries.     

Josh J Kennedy (WCE) fwd $299,600

An underpriced gun due to ankle injuries last year. Has an elite midfield delivering to him. Big upside if fit. Missed first NAB Cup game with minor ankle injury.   

Luke Ball (COL) mid $301,800

Could be the Lenny Hayes of 2013.  Consummate professional. Safe bet to return near his previous best average of 98 points per game. Missed first round of NAB Cup. Watch his progress closely before selecting him. 

Ben Jacobs (NTH) def $309,200

A ball magnet as a junior but has been hampered by chronic ankle injuries. Is now fit and has opportunities to play an inside midfield/half back role at Nth Melbourne.   

Josh Caddy (GEE) mid $329,300

Back home, new club, and will receive less attention in a star studded midfield. Started to show some signs in opening NAB Cup round. Need to see more. A possible breakout contender in 2013.

Brent Maloney (BRL) mid $362,400

Likely to return to his Best and Fairest form under Vossy. Feels rejuvenated at his new club. Fit and primed to score big as a major cog in the Lions midfield. 

Nick Lower (WBD) mid $379,500

Bulldogs need mature bodies to help the kids. Can rack up some big numbers if given the opportunity. Showed this in first NAB Cup outing. Unique choice.

There are several other players who could have been included in the list above. It would be great to hear your feedback. For now just remember to look closely at those potential bargains. Yes they may simply be no good. On the other hand they could also be undervalued. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking the next Brad Ebert or even worse, the next Patty Dangerfield. Finding that value for money player will be an important piece to solving the Supercoach puzzle in 2013.      

The Supercoach Advisor

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