The Barlow Factor: Mature Age Rookie Sensations

Three years ago Michael Barlow became an overnight rookie sensation. He burst onto the scene with 33 disposals, 2 goals and 151 Supercoach points.  Not a bad return for a rookie who only cost around $100,000! Those who had him in their side couldn’t believe their luck, and those who didn’t, soon traded him into their team. The 23 year old had been knocked back by several AFL clubs before finally getting his chance and proving the doubters wrong. As Supercoach fans will know, Barlow went on to average 116 SC points per game before tragically breaking his leg and every Supercoacher’s heart. Along the way Barlow posted huge scores of 151 (twice), 139, 132, 126, 138, and 146. Barlow’s success helped pave the way for the mature age footballer and opened the eyes of every Supercoach coach. In addition, with draft picks going to Gold Coast and GWS, AFL scouts started looking to the VFL (and SANFL, WAFL) for the next Michael Barlow. They weren’t disappointed. This opened the door for what we now call the ‘mature age rookie’ in Supercoach.

Mature age rookies have unique advantages over their younger draftees. Firstly, they have had several years to build their fitness and body size. Secondly, they have gained invaluable experience in the VFL or equivalent competitions playing against other mature bodies. Thirdly, their knock backs have only made them more determined. As a result they are hardened, hungry and ready for a crack at the big time. When they get their opportunity, they are often able to make an immediate impact at senior AFL level.   

There have been several mature age rookies in recent years, who have delivered above average scores and handsome profits. Who can forget names such as James Podsiadly, Tendai Mzungu, and Isaac Smith, and more recently Dayne Zorko, Jonathon Giles and Sam Gibson. Many of them were cheap options who scored well and eventually enabled you to generate enough cash for premium upgrades. Others like Zorko scored premium numbers and became keepers. Every one became a crucial part in propelling our Supercoach side to that next level. But how do you find these mature age rookie sensations?

Here are a few positive indicators to look for when assessing a mature age player:

1. Able to dominate at a lower level. Players like Barlow and Gibson regularly racked up 30 plus possessions in the VFL. Barlow was also second in the J.J.Liston trophy awarded for best player in the VFL.

2. Given opportunity to play. Nathan Blee is an example of not getting opportunity with Port Adelaide last year, despite being in a bottom side.  

3. Given time to play in a position that has potential to score well for Supercoach. For example in the midfield or even on a half back/wing. Look to see where they play in the NAB Cup as this is likely how the coach will use them come round one. The likes of Barlow, Zorko and Gibson all had free reign to run through the midfield and gather possessions.   

4. Playing for a bottom side. Mature aged rookies are more likely (not guaranteed) to get opportunities in teams who are struggling and need help like Melbourne and Port Adelaide.

5. Good Preseason Form. This is possibly their last crack at an AFL career so they won’t be holding back. If they play well in the NAB Cup, get on!

Remember these are only indicators, but if they are ticking all or most of these boxes then they are likely to have a considerable impact come round one.   

Here are 10 mature age players to consider in 2013

Kane Mitchell, age 23, (PTA) mid $126,200

Mitchell has already played five years of senior football, winning the 2012 Sandover Medal for best player in the WAFL. He was a state representative for WA and averaged 25 possessions last year. He also kicked 30 goals. These qualities liken him to rookies like Barlow and Zorko. Mitchell blitzed at Port's recent practice match. Also had a solid performance in first round of NAB Cup games. His hard running and good decision skills stood out. Look for Mitchell to get elevated off the rookie list to help a struggling Port Adelaide side. 

Sam Dwyer, age 26, (COL) mid/fwd $96,100

Dwyer has won a best and fairest at every level, and was a premiership player with Port Melbourne (2011) and a state representative last year (2012). He has already made an impact in the midfield at the Pies recent intra-club match. Showed a bit in the opening NAB Cup game and will only get better with more game time. If he is able to break into the Collingwood side, don’t overlook him!

Dean Terlich, age 23, (MEL) def $109,500

Played in the SANFL last season, averaging 21 disposals, six marks and five rebound 50’s per game playing across the half back. He also was best on ground in Norwood’s grand final win finishing with 31 disposals and 14 marks. Terlich was drafted to play a similar role at Melbourne. Equitted himself well in first NAB Cup game and should only get better. Expect him to play round one and make an immediate impact. 

Matt Jones, age 25, (MEL) mid $109,500

Jones played 17 games for Box Hill in the VFL last season. He averaged 20 disposals, 13 uncontested possessions, three inside 50’s, three tackles and three clearances per game. Jones also rated highly in disposal efficiency, so he can use the ball well. An important facet to score well in Supercoach. Showed encouraging signs in his first NAB game for Melbourne. Another mature age recruit who should play early for the Dees.  

Dylan Van Unen, age 22, (ESS) def $109,500

Played for Frankston in the VFL in 2012 finishing in the top five at their best and fairest. Van Unen is a defender who can also play forward. He averaged 14 disposals per game, but ranked first for his side in intercept possessions, which scores highly in Supercoach. Didn't get an opportunity in opening NAB Cup round. Should see him at some stage. Van Unen won’t be the next Barlow but he could be a good cash cow if he gets an opportunity. 

Brett Goodes, age 28, (WBD) mid/def $128,400

Has played over 100 VFL games, which includes a J.J.Liston trophy in 2008 and two premierships with North Ballarat. Goodes was named in the VFL team of the year in 2012, averaging 20 disposals, 11 contested possessions, six tackles and six clearances per game. Has plenty of experience and will play across half back for the Bulldogs. Already showed good form for the indigenous All-Stars and in the opening NAB Cup game. Look for Goodes to be elevated off the rookie list and play round one.

Tom Lee, age 21, (STK), fwd $115,900

Lee has played three seasons in the WAFL for Claremont and kicked 60 goals in 2012. He is a dangerous forward with an accurate kick. Lee finished runner up in Claremont’s Best and Fairest and third in the WAFL’s goal-kicking. The Saints gave up pick 12 for Lee, showing how highly they rate him. He  presented well during the intra-club match but wasn't rewarded for his efforts. Struggled early on in Nab Cup games but started showing signs and kicked a goal. He could make you some quick cash if he plays.      

Dean Towers, age 22, (SYD) mid $114,500

Towers is a running half back/outside midfielder who has been likened to Isaac Smith. He has explosive speed and an amazing vertical leap. He averaged 15 disposals, 10 uncontested possessions and three inside 50’s per game in the VFL last year. Towers also won the 2012 Fothergill-Round Medal for most promising young talent in the VFL. Formerly won by Ahmed Saad, Michael Hibberd and Michael Barlow. Showed flashes of brilliance in Sydney's NAB Cup games and is capable at AFL level. Might find it hard to break into the reigning premiers side but the Swans wouldn't have used their first round pick on him for nothing. Watch closely.

Jarryd Cachia, age 21, (CAR) mid $118,200

Cachia was previously on Carlton’s rookie list (2010 and 2011), but moved to play for Norwood in the SANFL last year. He was named on the interchange bench for the SANFL Team Of The Year, and averaged 21 disposals, four tackles and three clearances per game. Cachia is a hard nut and fierce tackler. If given opportunity at Carlton he will make an immediate impact. Didn't play in the opening round of NAB cup so monitor his progress.

Daniel Currie, age 23, (NTH) ruck $109,500

Currie spent five seasons with Sydney and failed to play a game. He then moved to the SANFL and played with North Adelaide where he won the fourth most hit-outs of any player in the competition. He averaged 11 disposals, four marks and 23 hit-outs per game. North got him to bolster their ruck stocks after losing Hamish MacIntosh. Was impressive in opening NAB Cup game putting himself into contention to support Goldstein. Should play at some stage. A great bench option for your rucks.

It is also worth noting that mature age recruits Nick Kommer (age 22, ESS, mid $109,500) and Kyle Martin (age 22, COL, mid $110,200) made impressive debuts in the opening round of the NAB Cup. Martin won the Best and Fairest for Frankston in the VFL last season and was named in the VFL team of the year. He averaged 26 possessions per game last season and looks like he will score well if given opportunity. Track them both closely.  


At this stage, the standouts for me are Kane Mitchell, Brett Goodes, Dean Currie and  Dean Towers. Mitchell’s resume reminds me a lot of Barlow’s. He dominated at SANFL level, has a good engine and will get plenty of opportunity to play through the midfield for Port Adelaide. Goodes similarly dominated in the VFL and will slot right into a struggling Bulldogs outfit. Wherever he plays he has class, speed and skill. He is a great tackler and can also kick a goal. Currie looked at home in his first game and dominated the centre with 12 hit-outs. He was also well endorsed by coach Brad Scott. Lock him for your ruck bench. Towers can definitely play and showed he is fully capable at AFL level. Sydney have a knack of finding hidden gems and it looks like Towers will be another, so long as he gets an opportunity.  

The only thing now is to see these guys play throughout the NAB Cup series. Then will we have a better idea as to who will be the next mature age rookie sensation. There could just be another Michael Barlow waiting to burst onto the scene.

Who do you think will be this year’s Michael Barlow?

The Supercoach Advisor

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Undervalued, Overlooked or simply no good?

Brad Ebert was undervalued due to lack of opportunities at the Eagles

One of the challenges of Supercoach is to find the undervalued or bargain priced player. This is a player who represents value for money. In Supercoach these are usually mid-priced players that can range anywhere between $200,000 and $450,000. Finding the right player can be a challenge because at the time their value isn’t obvious. Last year’s Supercoach winner, Powertothepeople, started his side with six of these mid-priced players. Two became keepers and the other four were traded out for a considerable profit. He chose players such as Hamish MacIntosh ($364K), Jack Grimes ($380K), Brian Lake ($287K), and Luke Parker ($282K). Not certain starters in every Supercoach side. Yet he saw their potential. How was he able to identify them?

Here are four categories that can help you identify a potential bargain in Supercoach:

1. A player who is underpriced due to an injury.

2. A player who lacked opportunities, but has now been given a more prominent role at his own club or especially a new club. 

3. A third or fourth year player who has shown signs of potential and is threatening to have a breakout season. Just like Patty Dangerfield in 2012.

4. Mature Age players who can slot straight in and play a role in their team. Remember Michael Barlow a few years back and Sam Gibson last year (They are an exception to the mid priced rule, normally priced around 100K).

Last season I identified Brad Ebert as fitting into the second category. He lacked opportunities at the Eagles and went to Port Adelaide where he was given a midfield role. Many teams overlooked him as Ebert had only averaged 57, 63, 70, and 64 Supercoach points through his first four seasons. His price of $344,000 seemed hefty for such meagre averages. However, those who saw his potential were handsomely rewarded. Ebert went on to average 100 Supercoach points per game in 2012. He reached a peak price of $504,000 after round 12 and finished the season priced at $484,500. That’s an increase of $140,500 at the end of the season and $160,000 if you decided to trade him out after round 12. For many teams he became a keeper (saving a trade) and for others he was upgraded to a premium midfielder. Identifying these types of players is what helped Powertothepeople get ahead of the pack last year.

In 2013 I am anticipating an even greater importance on identifying the value for money player. In previous years we’ve had an abundance of rookies and mature age players to choose from with the introduction of the Gold Coast and GWS. Not so this year. You also need to find two additional midfield players. This is going to make it a lot harder to find a sufficient amount of cheap rookies to score the points you need each week. Enter the mid-priced player. Finding that value for money mid-priced player will help you fill these extra positions. It will also give you a reliable scoring player who will either make you money or become a keeper and save you trades.     

Here are 10 potential bargains worth considering in 2013:

Shannon Byrnes (MEL) fwd $230,100

Will get more opportunities at Melbourne and averaged around 80 points per game when he played consistently at Geelong. Kicked five goals in Melbourne's recent practice match and was the clear standout. 

Travis Varcoe (GEL) mid/fwd $268,900

Has been earmarked for a Leon Davis type role across half-back and midfield. Played this role in opening NAB Cup round and looked solid. More importantly he seemed healthy again. If fit and playing come round 1 he could be a steal. 

Cam Pedersen (MEL) def/ruc $278,200  

Limited opportunites last year but starred in VFL. Good chance of producing decent scores if given game time. Unique option for your defence. 

Andrew Embley (WCE) mid $283,600

Struck down by injuries last year. Way underpriced for what he can produce on the open spaces of Subiaco. Slowly worked his way back during opening NAB games. Tackled well which is a good sign he's over his shoulder injuries.     

Josh J Kennedy (WCE) fwd $299,600

An underpriced gun due to ankle injuries last year. Has an elite midfield delivering to him. Big upside if fit. Missed first NAB Cup game with minor ankle injury.   

Luke Ball (COL) mid $301,800

Could be the Lenny Hayes of 2013.  Consummate professional. Safe bet to return near his previous best average of 98 points per game. Missed first round of NAB Cup. Watch his progress closely before selecting him. 

Ben Jacobs (NTH) def $309,200

A ball magnet as a junior but has been hampered by chronic ankle injuries. Is now fit and has opportunities to play an inside midfield/half back role at Nth Melbourne.   

Josh Caddy (GEE) mid $329,300

Back home, new club, and will receive less attention in a star studded midfield. Started to show some signs in opening NAB Cup round. Need to see more. A possible breakout contender in 2013.

Brent Maloney (BRL) mid $362,400

Likely to return to his Best and Fairest form under Vossy. Feels rejuvenated at his new club. Fit and primed to score big as a major cog in the Lions midfield. 

Nick Lower (WBD) mid $379,500

Bulldogs need mature bodies to help the kids. Can rack up some big numbers if given the opportunity. Showed this in first NAB Cup outing. Unique choice.

There are several other players who could have been included in the list above. It would be great to hear your feedback. For now just remember to look closely at those potential bargains. Yes they may simply be no good. On the other hand they could also be undervalued. Don’t make the mistake of overlooking the next Brad Ebert or even worse, the next Patty Dangerfield. Finding that value for money player will be an important piece to solving the Supercoach puzzle in 2013.      

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